Calls To Repeal Reform Win Now, But What’s Next?

Calls To Repeal Reform Win Now, But What’s Next?

Many Republican candidates who favor a repeal of the health reform law won their primaries last week, including California governor and Senate hopefuls Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina. However, the primary results might not be a meaningful barometer for this fall's midterm elections.

This year’s primary elections were once anticipated as an early referendum on health reform’s political fortunes. Across the nation, candidates on both sides of the aisle staked out clear positions on the law — with Democrats generally touting reform’s benefits and Republicans calling for the overhaul to be repealed and replaced. This split mostly holds true in California, with top Republican hopefuls for office unanimously opposing the law.

However, the Golden State’s unique political dynamics may force the winning Republican candidates to back off their opposition to the reform law.

Reform as Wedge Issue

After the overhaul was enacted in March, both political parties embraced health reform as a key wedge issue for this year’s midterm elections. Many Republicans viewed the sweeping overhaul as a “gift” that would allow them to campaign on fears of government overreach and rising health costs. Democrats, meanwhile, hoped to tout a legislative victory and the law’s immediate benefits for the nation’s seniors, a key political constituency. Both sides have worked to shape public perception, even as debate over reform has cooled off. The White House organized events last week to celebrate new prescription-drug rebates for seniors. Meanwhile, U.S. House Republicans held a vote yesterday that called for a repeal that, while destined to fail, served as a symbolic effort to get Democrats on the record as supporting the controversial individual mandate.

Public polls on reform are mostly inconclusive, but the interpretation reflects a political split. Joel Benenson, the White House’s chief pollster, says that most Americans don’t favor an outright repeal but want to give the law a chance to work. In contrast, a national poll conducted by the conservative-leaning Rasmussen Reports found that 58% of respondents favor repealing the law, with 82% of Republicans saying they back a repeal.

This conservative opposition was borne out on the ground in recent primaries. Some congressional Republicans with long records of voting for conservative issues — like Sen. Bob Bennett of Utah and Rep. Bob Inglis of South Carolina — suffered primary rebukes, in part for initially favoring a health reform compromise rather than outright opposing the law.

California Landscape May Force Tactical Shift

Both Rasmussen Reports and the independent Field Poll have found that most California residents support the overhaul. As a result, state Republicans hoping for top office may have to perform a balancing act, having already staked out positions against the law.

Republican gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman has said that she would “strongly encourage” her attorney general to file suit challenging the constitutionality of the law. Senate candidate Carly Fiorina also has pledged to work to repeal it.

Having survived their primary battles, Whitman and Fiorina have reasons to move closer to the political center on many issues. Beyond the polling on health reform, California’s registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by 2.3 million and conservative candidates historically fail to win statewide office.

However, Whitman and Fiorina risk alienating their conservative base by shifting their stance on reform. Fiorina is supported by 80% of residents who strongly favor repealing the overhaul, according to Rasmussen Reports. In addition, Republican National Committee Chair Michael Steele said yesterday that the RNC will fund a major effort to win open offices in California — given toss-up races for both the governor and Senate positions — which could constrain the candidates’ flexibility.

Meanwhile, California Democrats have released a new television advertisement that tries to “draw a favorable contrast with those who opposed reform and now seek to repeal it,” according to Health Access.

Looking Down the Road

As Politico notes, the rhetoric over repeal may clash with the reality of the law, as new regulations and agencies continue to take effect. Even if Republican candidates win this fall, they will face challenges when trying to overturn already implemented provisions. Meanwhile, Republican consultants who work with industry clients say they are concentrating on understanding the regulations, not changing them. William Pierce, a former official at HHS under President George W. Bush says firms realize it’s in their “best interest to make the law work the best for them.”

Moreover, there’s an X-factor that could mute the impact of both parties’ efforts to use reform as a wedge issue: Public interest in the overhaul has dropped off as other issues have surged. According to Pew Research, which tracks weekly news coverage of top stories, health care has not been among the nation’s top six stories since April 22. According to Republican pollster Bill McInturff, the debate over health reform’s impact “has been kind of squooshed” by coverage of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.

However, our digest highlights plenty of news coverage of reform developments. Here’s a look at other key stories from across the nation.

In the States

On the Hill

Industry Reaction

Employer Impact

Holes in the System

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