HEALTH RISKS: Public Overestimates, Says New Poll

The public tends to greatly overestimate their chances of being hurt in various types of accidents and developing many diseases, according to a new Harris Poll. Disease and accident risks which the public overestimates are:

Prostate/Breast Cancer: The public perceives a greater than 40% chance for each, whereas the actual rate is about 10%.
Lung Cancer: The public estimates a 35% chance, while the real chances are less than 20%.
Diabetes: The public perceives a 37% chance, compared to a realistic estimate of less than 20%.
Stroke: The public feels they have a 45% chance of stroke, compared to an actual occurrence of about 20%.
Heart Attack: Men only slightly overestimated their chances at 50% (versus an actual 40%), but women's estimate of 50% was far above the reality of 10%.
HIV/AIDS: The public pegged its chances of developing HIV/AIDS at about 10%, higher than the realistic estimated risk of less than 5%.
Serious injury in a car accident: Again, the public estimates an almost 50% chance of this, but their actual risk is only 5%.

The only risk on the list which the public did not overestimate substantially was that of being hit by their spouse or partner. Respondents estimated a 13% chance, and the actual rate is in fact between 10% and 20%. In reviewing these results, Dr. John Graham of the Harvard School of Public Health, who helped develop the survey, said the results may reflect in part "the intuitive problems that people have understanding probabilities. It may also reflect the fact that there are powerful interests in society who benefit from efforts to frighten people. Furthermore, the media has a tendency to focus on all the bad things that could happen to people." On the positive side, he says, the public's attitudes may mean "people are more likely to take appropriate tests, or change their lifestyles." But "[o]n the other hand, the overestimation of risk can trigger unreasonable demands for expensive policies which are not cost- effective." The poll of 1,013 adults was conducted Oct. 14-20. Figures for age, sex, race and education were weighted to bring them into line with their actual proportion in the population. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3% (Harris release, 1/27). This is part of the California Healthline Daily Edition, a summary of health policy coverage from major news organizations. Sign up for an email subscription.